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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into
the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are
expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A
shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide
southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the
afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest
and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of
the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near
the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will
occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support
severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and
adjacent Plains to the east.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within
the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move
southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas
will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with
northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow
along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts
of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail.

Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and
surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least
initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater
hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint
spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will
likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can
occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into
the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet
will be.

..Wendt.. 07/18/2024