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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northeast
Montana eastward through North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota
on Monday and Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
central-southern Rockies, as a potent mid-level low/trough moves
east, cresting the ridge over the northern Rockies into the northern
Great Plains.  A surface low initially over MT and downstream of the
mid-level wave, will develop eastward and deepen as it moves near
the Manitoba/ND border early Tuesday morning.  A frontal zone will
beco*e draped generally from west to east near the international
border.  Farther east, a mid-level trough initially over the Lower
Great Lakes/OH Valley will move through the Northeast by daybreak
Tuesday.  A surface low will develop northeastward from Lake Erie to
northern Maine.

...Montana/ND/MN...
The aforementioned strong mid-level disturbance will move into the
northern High Plains during the day.  Strong flow with a westerly
co*ponent will likely contribute to drying in the immediate lee of
the higher terrain.  Isolated storms are possible during the
afternoon over Montana as appreciable forcing for ascent overspreads
MT.  The high-based storms will potentially be capable of isolated
severe gusts and perhaps large hail.  Model guidance indicates most
of diurnal storm activity will be north of the U.S./Canadian border.
However, the risk for storms will probably increase by early evening
from northeast MT into northern ND as strengthening low-level warm
air advection occurs.  Steep lapse rates and strengthening mid- to
high-level flow (effective shear increasing to 50 kt by early
evening) will favor storm organization.  Supercells capable of
mainly a hail risk may eventually coalesce into a cluster of storms
during the evening with a hail/wind threat acco*panying this
activity.  Some risk for severe may linger well into the overnight
from parts of eastern ND into MN.

...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast...
A zone of showers/isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Monday morning from the OH Valley northeastward into the Lower Great
Lakes.  A moisture-rich airmass will reside over this general region
with upper 60s deg F dewpoints over NY with lower 70s from southern
New England southward into the Mid-Atlantic states.  Cloud debris
and stabilizing influence of showers/storms will likely limit
buoyancy, especially from northern PA northward into NY and New
England.  However, cloud breaks and some diurnal heating will lead
250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE north over NY/New England and 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE south.  Equally consequential, veering and strengthening flow
fields in the low to mid levels will support storm organization,
including the potential for some supercells.  A tornado and damaging
gusts appear to be the main threats with the stronger storms.

..Smith.. 07/17/2022