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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and
Tuesday night from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the western
Great Lakes.  Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level low/trough will move from the MT/ND/Canadian
border east-southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes during the
period.  Farther southwest, a mid-level anticyclone will be centered
over the Four Corners.  In the low levels, a surface low near the
ND/Manitoba border will develop east as an attendant cold front
sweeps southeastward across the Upper Midwest.

...Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes...
Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning over MN near
the terminus of a southwesterly LLJ.  This activity will probably
dissipate during the morning before renewed activity develops during
the day.  It remains unclear regarding thunderstorm coverage across
the Upper Midwest.  Model guidance shows a stout capping inversion
on the northeast periphery of an elevated mixed layer centered over
the central/southern High Plains.  Relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and somewhat questionable boundary-layer dewpoints
(mainly 60s to lower 70s deg F) are likely influencing model
depictions of buoyancy and convective activity (i.e., possibly too
limiting).  Notwithstanding, have reduced severe probabilities for
the southwest part of the Great Lakes owing to the trends in the
model guidance.  It seems that a cluster of storms will develop
during the afternoon and spread east-southeastward through a
moisture plume centered over WI.  Damaging gusts will probably be
the primary severe hazard.  A conditional risk for severe may extend
as far southwest and south as eastern IA into northern IL/IN with
storms that may develop on the front and move into the southern
Great Lakes late.  

Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered diurnal storms are likely
over the Southeast and Four Corners.

..Smith.. 07/17/2022