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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

The pattern in the extended D3/Wed-D6/Fri will feature a trough
moving into the Great Lakes and eastern US while a ridge continues
to build across the western US. Late in the extended period, a
deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest,
with an attendant cold front D7/Sun-D8/Mon bringing increasing winds
and potential thunderstorm chances.

Across the western US where high-amplitude ridging continues, 
drying conditions and very warm temperatures are expected. Isolated
dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions eastern
Nevada and far southern Idaho D3/Wed-D4/Thur. 

As a shortwave impulse moves northward across California into the
Pacific Northwest D2/Tue-D3/Wed, southerly flow will bring an
increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry
thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where
moisture will be shallow with primarily high-based convection on
D3/Wed. On D4/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will
overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation
was maintained with this outlook. Given the potential for dry
lightning on D3/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will
be possible.

Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great
Basin beyond D3/Wed, residing across southern Nevada/Utah/Arizona
where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms
may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah,
along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture
through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will
receive wetting rainfall in the next 48 hours, leading to
uncertainty in status of fuels.

..Thornton.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...