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Mesoscale Discussion 1633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...and the
Michigan Upper Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152006Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...As a cold front moves out of Minnesota, into Northwest
Wisconsin, and eventually into the Upper Peninsula, thunderstorm
coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon and
evening. While these storms will be capable of producing some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some 1.00 inch hail, watch issuance
is not expected at this time given the isolated nature of severe
occurrence.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun developing within a modestly
unstable airmass across the Upper Peninsula/Northern Wisconsin into
Eastern Minnesota. Thunderstorm activity will increase as a cold
front moves southeastward out of Minnesota into Wisconsin, and deep
layer shear magnitudes of 35-40 kts will support at least some
isolated severe convection. Given relatively straight-line forecast
hodographs and thin buoyancy profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts
and hail are the primary hazards expected with any mature multicell
clusters that develop.

..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46919302 47429190 47589132 47979056 47968996 47568913
            47228862 46488829 45898821 45298854 45398935 45469092
            45459252 45839293 46529331 46919302