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Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...far western Wisconsin...and
far northeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...530...

Valid 140750Z - 140945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528, 530
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail is expected to persist for
at least the next 1-2 hours before gradually diminishing after
roughly 10 UTC.

DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery over the past 30 minutes continues to
show strong updraft pulses embedded within a broader, loosely
organized MCS that is slowly pushing south along the MS River.
Reflectivity and velocity data from KARX show new convection
developing along/just behind a consolidating outflow boundary,
suggesting that portions of the MCS may beco*e better organized in
the short term. Additionally, weak convection on the western flank
of the outflow has shown some signs of modest intensification,
possibly due to an ingesting of higher theta-e air to the west of
outflow from prior convection. Given these trends, a severe hail and
wind risk should persist for the next 1-2 hours. 

However, the longevity of this co*plex remains unclear as it moves
into an air mass that has already seen some degree of convective
overturning (mainly across northeast IA into southwest WI). Mean
deep-level flow parallel to the MCS should limit the potential for
bowing segments if a balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone can
be established, and storm motions along the boundary should limit
individual storm longevity (and any attendant severe hail threat).
As such, confidence in the severe potential after roughly 10 UTC is
low and downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated.
Trends will be monitored for intensification on the western flank of
the MCS that may favor a propagation along the aforementioned
low-level theta-e gradient, which could prolong the severe threat.

..Moore.. 07/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43459326 43769343 44039332 44169303 44299232 44239185
            43979117 43769031 43479025 43209041 43099106 43119166
            43179220 43269272 43459326