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Mesoscale Discussion 1496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162252Z - 170045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds, and marginally severe hail, are possible with
convection as it spreads across the lower desert regions this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Upper ridge over northeastern AZ continues to suppress
stronger easterly flow near the international border where 500mb
flow is on the order of 20kt. Within the stronger easterlies, one
weak wave is advancing across the northern Gulf of California while
the northern extent of a possible second wave appears to be
influencing convection across southern Pima/Santa Cruz/Cochise
County region. This activity is fairly robust and some clustering is
occurring, but mostly south of the border. Farther north, scattered
convection has developed over the higher terrain to the north-east
of the more populated lower deserts. PW values are around 1.25
inches into the PHX metro where temperatures are near 110F. While
deep-layer flow is not that strong, adequate easterlies will likely
allow convection to migrate off the higher terrain with some
potential for gusty winds as storms propagate toward the eastern PHX
metro over the next several hours. Severe threat should be fairly
isolated but gusty wind may acco*pany much of this convection.
Severe thunderstorm watch does not currently appear warranted.

..Darrow/Grams.. 07/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   34471252 33641049 31881030 31371063 31501160 32871181
            33861310 34471252