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Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...Northeast ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160920Z - 161115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong gust or two is possible across northeast ND over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An organized convective line has moves steadily across
southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba for the past few
hours. Storm motion has remained around 30-35 kt, which should bring
the southern end of the convective line across the US/Canada border
into Rolette County ND within the next half hour. 

Updraft intensity within the line has gradually decreased over the
past hour or so, likely due to the decreasing buoyancy with eastern
extent as well as displacement east of the stronger low to mid-level
flow. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and abundant low-level
moisture are in place downstream, and the line appears
well-organized. These factors will contribute to the potential for a
few stronger gusts for the next hour or two across northeast ND. A
stronger version of this line produced a near-severe gust of 47 kt
at CYBR at 08Z. Limited spatial extent and isolated nature of the
severe threat are expected to preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48760019 48989998 49009797 48549769 48219859 48449985
            48760019