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Topic: SPC Jul 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 45 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Jul 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Jul 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the central Plains
this afternoon and evening, and possibly across northern Missouri
overnight. A few strong storms are also expected this afternoon from
Maryland southward across Virginia.

...Central Plains...
Weak height falls aloft will occur as a shortwave trough moves from
the northern and central Plains southeastward toward the MS Valley
by 00Z, with a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel winds moving from NE into
MO. At the surface, a trough will extend roughly from southwest KS
into central MO and IL by 21Z, with hot and dry conditions south of
the wind shift. Low-level moisture with 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints
will remain along and north of the front and maximized just north of
I-70 from KS into MO and IL.

Scattered storms may be ongoing this morning from northern NE across
the Dakotas where midlevel temperatures will be relatively cool and
with weak theta-e advection at 850 mb. A storm or two could produce
marginal hail or gusty winds.

Later in the day when heating occurs, instability will better favor
severe storms producing hail or severe gusts. Favored areas for
development will be with the early day storms as they propagate
southeastward across NE, and over the Plains of CO where dry
adiabatic lapse rates and sufficient convergence will favor
scattered convection. Outflows may eventually merge over western and
central KS, where a few severe gusts will be possible after 00Z.

Farther east, nocturnal storms may develop from southeast NE into
northern MO, aided by lift from southwesterly 850 mb winds impinging
on the boundary. Westerly low-level winds may maintain a feed of
unstable air toward the boundary, with at least marginal wind or
hail possible overnight.

...MD...VA...NC...
A weak upper trough will extend from NY southward across the
Carolinas today, providing cool midlevel temperatures around -9 C at
500 mb. At the surface, upper 60s F to lower 70s F dewpoints are
already in place, and will result in around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE with
heating. Storms are expected to form from MD into central and
southeast VA by around 21Z within the weak surface trough, and a few
damaging gusts or marginal pulse hail may develop. Storms may
persist through about 01-02Z as they drift east.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 07/16/2022


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Source: SPC Jul 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html)