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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS...CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for the Ozarks,
central Appalachians, and southwest Montana on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large mid-level anticyclone will reside over the Four Corners on
Sunday.  A mid-level low will slowly move east from the WA
coast/Vancouver Island into the Pacific Northwest.  A weak and broad
mid-level trough will move east from the middle MS Valley into the
OH Valley, and a low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave trough will move
across New England during the day.  The surface pattern will feature
a myriad of weak, diffuse boundaries, one of which will move across
the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley.  

...Ozark Plateau to lower OH Valley...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday
morning from MO east into IN.  Considerable cloud debris will likely
concentrate over the lower OH Valley where buoyancy will be weak. 
Farther west, a surface front will push southward during the day. 
Strong heating is expected on the edge of stabilizing effects
associated with the early-midday precipitation.  A deeper, mixed
boundary layer will likely evolve by afternoon from northern AR into
eastern OK.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
during the late afternoon/early evening.  Isolated severe gusts/wind
damage and/or large hail are possible with the stronger storms.

...Central Appalachians...
A relatively moist airmass featuring modest lapse rates is forecast
ahead of the OH Valley mid-level trough.  Model forecast soundings
indicate moderate buoyancy will develop by early afternoon.  As weak
forcing for ascent spreads east into the area, scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop by early afternoon.  Locally
strong, damaging gusts are possible with the more water-laden cores.

...Southwest MT...
Despite the Pacific NW mid-level low only slowly approaching the
region during the period, a belt of moderate southwesterly flow is
forecast to overspread the region.  Orographic lift will likely
serve as the primary impetus for isolated storms during the late
afternoon/early evening.  Relatively dry sub-cloud layers will
promote evaporation and the potential for isolated severe gusts.

..Smith.. 07/16/2022