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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms, including a risk of damaging
winds and hail, will be possible across parts of the northern
Rockies and High Plains today and tonight.

...MT/ND...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving across eastern OR.  This feature and its associated mid-level
speed max will track across ID into MT this afternoon.  Large-scale
lift ahead of the trough is already resulting in scattered
thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT, which will spread
eastward into central/eastern MT this afternoon and evening.  Hot
surface temperatures in the 90s or low 100s are expected, yielding a
deeply mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.  This will
support high-based convection capable of locally damaging wind
gusts.  This activity will likely spread into western ND after dark.

Winds aloft weaken with southward extent, but at least isolated
strong to severe wind gusts will be possible into parts of
northern/eastern WY and western NE/SD this afternoon.

..Hart/Kerr.. 07/15/2022