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Mesoscale Discussion 1485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Areas affected...Far East-Central/Southeast
ND...West-Central/Central/Southwest MN...West-Central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 150627Z - 150830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and/or sporadic damaging wind gusts
are possible for the next several hours across portions of the Upper
Midwest.

DISCUSSION...Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving into
the Upper Midwest, augmented by low-level warm advection into the
region, is fostering elevated thunderstorm development from far
east-central ND into central MN. Signs of additional development
exist from east-central MN into west-central WI, to the north of a
warm front extending from near the ND/SD/MN border intersection
across central MN and into southwest WI. 

Recent mesoanalysis estimates max 2-6 km AGL lapse rates generally
around 7 deg C per km across MN, with value below 7 deg C per km in
much of WI. Surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s/low 70s south
of the front in MN, with temperatures generally in the mid 70s.
Advection of this moist air mass across the frontal zone should aid
in additional storm development as the shortwave trough continues
southeastward. MPX VAD recently sampled 46 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear,
suggesting enough buoyancy and shear is in place for a few stronger
storms. Primary threat with any more organized storms will be large
hail. Low-level stability is in place, but it is modest and shallow,
so a few stronger downdrafts could still reach the surface as well.
Limited overall severe coverage should preclude the need for watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46839749 47549659 44719029 43829138 44729413 46079708
            46839749