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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms, including a risk of damaging
winds and hail, will be possible across parts of the northern
Rockies and High Plains today and early tonight.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Another shortwave trough will impinge on the upper ridge over MT
today, with 40-50 kt midlevel winds and relatively cool temperatures
aloft. Heating will result in steep lapse rates, contributing to
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE despite relatively limited moisture. Storms
are expected to form over west/southwest MT by 18Z, and progress
rapidly east across the state. The most probable severe threat will
be damaging winds as the deep and well-mixed boundary layer will aid
downdraft potential. The cold temperatures aloft should yield hail
as well. Storms may remain strong or severe into ND by late evening.
Farther south into WY and western SD, CAPE and shear will both be
weaker, but batches of rain and high-based storms may yield strong
gusts there as well.

...Illinois and vicinity...
Rain and storms will be ongoing early in the period from WI into
northern IL and eastern IA, in association with a weak upper-level
wave which will continue southeastward across IL, IN and Lower MI
during the day. Pockets of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints along with
heating may result in sufficient instability for reinvigorated
convection over IL and parts of IN, with locally strong wind gusts
possible in a modest northwest flow regime. However, forecast
soundings generally do not appear favorable for severe storms owing
to poor lapse rates and questionable boundary-layer moisture
quality.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 07/15/2022