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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the lower Missouri
Valley westward into the central Great Plains and into parts of the
Dakotas on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone over the Four Corners will move little on
Saturday.  A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move from the
north-central U.S. southeastward to the middle MS Valley during the
period with broad, weak cyclonic mid-level flow over the Midwest
into the Northeast.  In the low levels, a weak front will extend
from an area of low pressure over the OH Valley on Saturday morning
westward into the central Great Plains and arcing north.  

...Dakotas southward into the central Great Plains/lower MO
Valley...
Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible
early Saturday morning over the Dakotas in association with the
mid-level disturbance.  This initial convective activity will likely
weaken during the morning as it moves southeast into the lower MO
Valley by afternoon.  A ribbon of stronger mid-level flow will
likely move southeastward into the lower MO Valley by mid afternoon.
The focus for additional storms will likely remain somewhat nebulous
but most concentrated --in an isolated-coverage basis-- from the
lower MO Valley west into the central Great Plains and northward
into the Dakotas during the afternoon and early evening.  Model
guidance generally shows 60s deg F boundary-layer dewpoints within
this corridor, and strong diurnal heating will mostly erode
convective inhibition by mid-late afternoon.  Isolated severe
thunderstorms capable of a wind/hail threat are possible.  This
activity will likely weaken by mid evening coincident with diurnal
cooling.

..Smith.. 07/15/2022