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Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central into south-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142037Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to damaging winds will remain possible as
thunderstorms spread southwestward over the next few hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have soared into the upper 90s and low
100s across parts of central TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorm
clusters moving mostly south-southwestward. This activity remains
loosely organized, with generally 15-20 kt of mid-level
north-northeasterly flow present per area VWPs and recent
mesoanalysis estimates. Around 1000-1600 J/kg of DCAPE, the presence
of steep low-level lapse rates, and inverted-v RAP forecast
soundings suggest a continued threat for isolated strong to damaging
winds over the next few hours. Based on recent radar trends, the
greatest threat for sporadic wind damage in the short term may exist
along the western portion of the ongoing convective cluster,
generally from the vicinity of San Angelo to Lampasas TX and points
southward. Weak deep-layer shear should continue to limit overall
thunderstorm organization/intensity, and watch issuance is not
expected.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32320063 32509928 32449907 32259888 31789862 31259834
            30699808 30109739 29739684 29309616 28209770 28189925
            28890016 29840114 30480145 31290147 31820135 32320063