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Mesoscale Discussion 1480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141756Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the
strongest thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has recently developed along both sea
breezes on the west and east coasts of the FL Peninsula. MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg will be co*mon across this area with continued robust
diurnal heating. Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures associated
with a weak upper low over northern Cuba and the Bahamas are also
contributing to this substantial buoyancy. Even though low-level
winds will remain weak, some modest enhancement to the mid and
upper-level flow field was noted in 12Z soundings from MFL/KEY due
to the proximity of the upper low. Some anvil-level venting should
occur with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will develop
over much of the FL Peninsula in the next few hours. This venting,
along with the cool mid-level temperatures and moderate to strong
instability, should aid in the production of isolated marginally
severe hail with the more robust updrafts. Occasional strong to
damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse rates
continue to steepen with daytime heating and as DCAPE increases to
around 1000 J/kg. Still, current expectations are for the overall
severe threat to remain isolated/marginal owing to the weak
deep-layer shear. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27798290 28548272 29148276 29398208 29138141 28378084
            27628052 26968019 26128041 25438091 25398121 25818172
            26538224 27798290