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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
A slight westward shift of the mid-level pressure gradient over the
West Coast will result in lower potential for wind-driven fire
weather concerns for Thursday; however, a dry-thunderstorm risk will
likely continue for parts of northeast NV and adjacent areas of
UT/ID. 

...Nevada...
A dominant Four Corners ridge will remain in place for the next few
days. Another low-amplitude trough is expected to approach the West
Coast by late Thursday, which should place the strongest mid-level
winds over portions of northern CA into southern OR where fuels are
modestly dry (though curing). A modest thermally-induced low over
northern NV will likely result in breezy conditions, but latest
ensemble guidance hints that sustained winds will most likely remain
in the 10-15 mph range with gusts up to 20-25 mph. With afternoon RH
values near 15%, this will likely result in areas of elevated fire
weather conditions. However, spread regarding the spatial and
temporal extent of this threat across the state remains high and
casts uncertainty into the overall fire weather risk. 

...West Kansas...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will induce a
southerly return flow pattern Thursday afternoon. While surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 50s are likely, afternoon highs are
expected to exceed 100 F, yielding RH values near 20% across western
KS. Most deterministic solutions hint at sustained winds near 15
mph, but stronger winds closer to 20 mph are probable given the
tendency for guidance to under-forecast winds in these scenarios.
With ERCs at or above the 90th percentile, elevated fire weather
conditions appear possible. Ensemble support for this scenario is
low, but trends will continue to be monitored for the need for
highlights. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
The monsoonal moisture in place across much of the Four Corners and
Great Basin is expected to linger through the end of the week. This
will result in another day of thunderstorm chances across the
region, including portions of northeast NV where fuels remain dry
and the potential for appreciable rainfall is low. Forecast
soundings continue to show favorable thermodynamic profiles for a
mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Convective
coverage will likely be more isolated co*pared to previous days due
to weaker synoptic ascent, but orographic lift will likely yield a
few storms with the potential for dry lightning strikes. This threat
may extend into portions of eastern ID, but confidence in the
overlap of dry thunderstorms and receptive fuels is lower with
northeastward extent.

..Moore.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...