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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts
of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A
marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the
Carolinas into Georgia.

...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will build northward across northern Rockies on
Thursday, as northwest mid-level flow beco*es established across the
northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
through the northern High Plains. Surface flow will be southeasterly
across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture setting up from Iowa northwestward into
eastern South Dakota and central North Dakota. Along this corridor,
moderate instability is forecast by afternoon. In spite of this,
warm air aloft and a capping inversion will likely prevent
convective initiation in most areas through the day. The greatest
chance for storm development will be from southern Manitoba into
northeastern North Dakota, along the northern edge of the cap.
Storms could form and move south-southeastward into western
Minnesota. Other very isolated storms could form across the unstable
airmass from the Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley. Storms that
can overco*e the cap along and near the instability axis, should
have access to moderate deep-layer shear and lapse rates. This could
result in an isolated severe threat during the late afternoon and
early evening. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail would be the
primary threats.

...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move eastward through the southern
Appalachians on Thursday. At the surface, a front should be
positioned from northern Georgia into the western Carolinas. Surface
dewpoints south of the front will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In
response, moderate instability is expected to develop during the day
in some areas south of the front. This co*bined with 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, should be
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat will likely be
greatest near and after peak heating.

..Broyles.. 07/13/2022