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Mesoscale Discussion 1463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Chesapeake Bay vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462...

Valid 122211Z - 130015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) are probable with a
small-scale bow as it moves across the northern portion of
Chesapeake Bay and into the MD Eastern Shore and southern half of
DE.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a small-scale bow moving east at
35kt over Washington D.C. as of 6pm.  KJYO (Leesburg, VA) and KIAD
(Dulles, VA) ASOS's both measured 54kt and 53kt, respectively, in
the last hour.  The airmass over the Chesapeake Bay vicinity is
characterized as warm/very moist with temperatures near 90 deg F and
dewpoints in the lower 70s.  RAP forecast soundings indicate around
2000 J/kg MLCAPE and KLWX VAD data indicated around 35kt 0-6 km
shear.  In summary, the near-storm environment and convective mode
(small bow) remains favorable for strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph)
in a swath from D.C. to Chesapeake Bay through 7pm.  It seems
plausible/increasingly likely the intensity of the bow will more or
less be maintained as it moves across the Eastern Shore and the
southern half of DE in the 7-8pm timeframe.

..Smith.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39217679 39137604 39007529 38647522 38427532 38447610
            38387680 38577711 38807685 39217679