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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, acco*panied by a risk for damaging winds, are
expected from New England through the middle Atlantic into the
central Appalachian region. A few strong storms may also be noted
across the upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes, and over
the central High Plains.

...New England/Middle Atlantic/Central Appalachians...

Notable short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across the upper
Great Lakes early this morning. Weak height falls will spread across
the northeastern US early in the period as strong 500mb flow
translates ahead of this feature across the upper Ohio Valley into
New England by 18z. Surface heating will lead to steep low-level
lapse rates ahead of the front, especially from northern PA into VT.
This will likely lead to scattered convective development ahead of
the front by 16-18z which will spread into New England later in the
afternoon. Scattered convection may be delayed a few hours across
the middle Atlantic into the central Appalachians as large-scale
forcing will be negligible at lower latitudes. Even so, ample
buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector and forecast shear
should support the possibility for organized updrafts. Damaging
winds will be the primary severe threat with convection this
afternoon/evening across this region.

...Upper MS Valley/Western Great Lakes...

Secondary upstream short-wave trough will dig southeast into the
upper MS Valley later today as speed max translates into central MN
by 18z. Cooling temperatures aloft, strong surface heating, and
background short wave support suggest a few robust storms could
generate some gusty winds/hail.

...Central High Plains...

Upper ridge is forecast to build north across the High Plains during
the day1 period. This will maintain northwesterly flow across WY
into northeast CO and scattered convection that evolves over
southeastern WY should easily spread southeast within modestly
sheared environment. While PW values are not particularly high
across this region, SBCAPE values could approach 1500 J/kg which
should be enough to warrant at least some threat for gusty
winds/hail.

..Darrow/Moore.. 07/12/2022