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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper-air regime is expected to largely remain stagnant over the
western CONUS over the next 48 hours. The approach of a mid-level
disturbance across the Pacific Northwest early in the period will
enhance the pressure gradient on the western periphery of a Four
Corners ridge. Consequently, mid-level winds are forecast to
strengthen across southern to central Nevada, which should promote
another day of hot, dry, and windy conditions. Weak ascent across
the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies coupled with modest
monsoonal moisture will foster another day of isolated thunderstorms
that may pose a fire weather concern where fuels are dry. 

...Central Nevada...
Despite an increase in moisture aloft, boundary-layer conditions
will remain hot and dry across southern to central NV Wednesday.
Afternoon minimum RH values in the low teens are expected as
temperatures climb into the upper 90s and low 100s. Downslope winds
off the southern Sierra Nevada are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph
with frequent gusts between 20-25 mph as stronger flow in the
800-600 mb layer mixes to the surface by mid afternoon. The
antecedent hot/dry conditions will maintain receptive fuels across
the region, which will support another day of elevated (and perhaps
briefly critical) fire weather conditions.

Localized elevated conditions are also possible across northwestern
NV Wednesday afternoon as downslope winds increase behind a surface
trough as it shifts eastward through the day. While this potential
is noted, guidance members differ on the coverage and magnitude of
15+ mph winds and the overall fire weather threat. This area will be
monitored for the need for additional highlights. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
The monsoonal moisture that is currently advecting northward on the
western periphery of the Four Corners high will likely reach into
the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies by Wednesday
afternoon. Most of the column moistening is expected to occur above
drier boundary layer conditions, which will establish thermodynamic
profiles favorable for dry thunderstorm potential. Diurnal
orographic ascent and weak lift ahead of the low-amplitude trough
across the Pacific Northwest will support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms. PWAT values between 0.7 to 0.9 inches
should favor a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. While a few dry
strikes are possible across most of the region, the highest fire
weather concern will likely reside across portions of northern UT
and adjacent areas of ID and NV where fuels are most receptive and a
weaker QPF signal is noted in deterministic and ensemble guidance,
signaling a better potential for dry lightning.

..Moore.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...