Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...Western Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 120033Z - 120230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving off Lake Michigan into western lower
Michigan in the co*ing hours may pose an isolated severe wind/hail
risk. A watch is not anticipated given the isolated nature of the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms currently moving across Lake Michigan have
maintained convective intensity per lightning counts, MRMS
vertically integrated ice data, and cloud-top temperatures despite
moving over cooler lake waters. This is likely due to weak ascent
along a diffuse front and the eastward advection of the viable warm
sector (which features 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as well as 40-45 knots
of effective bulk shear, both of which were sampled by regional 00
UTC soundings. This convective environment will likely persist into
the mid (and possibly late) evening hours as an attendant mid-level
wave shifts east/southeast across the Great Lakes region and
continues to augment ascent along the frontal boundary. Prior to
crossing the lake, this activity was responsible for a few wind
damage and marginally severe hail reports across eastern WI, and
should continue to pose a severe hail/wind risk into western MI over
the next few hours. However, given the isolated nature of the
convection (and low probability for a substantial increase in storm
coverage), a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Edwards.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   41638729 42378694 43438708 44168680 44558591 44658506
            44348441 43728421 42908429 42198450 41778494 41488533
            41398595 41638729