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Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/southern AR...far northeast
TX...northern LA...far northwest MS and extreme southwest TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...

Valid 131738Z - 131915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across
WW 120. An increasing severe threat will shift east into parts of
eastern AR, northern MS and northeast LA over the next few hours and
a downstream watch is likely in the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to shift
east/northeast across central and southern AR early this afternoon.
Additional development appears likely into far northeast TX and
northern LA soon based on an increase in vertically developing
cumulus on latest visible satellite imagery and weakening MLCIN per
17z mesoanalysis. A threat for damaging gusts and mesovortex
tornadoes within the line of of storms will persist the next several
hours. There is some increased potential for a few semi-discrete
cells ahead of the line across far southern AR into northern LA as
well. Stronger instability exists across this area in a higher
quality warm sector. If discrete cells can develop and be sustained
before linear development ensues, a greater tornado threat will
acco*pany these cells. 

Tracking the line of storms, it appears they will arrive near the
eastern edges of WW 120 by around 21z. The downstream airmass across
parts of eastern AR into northern MS is rapidly recovering, with
mid-60s dewpoints now expanding northward along the MS River. The
northern edge of an expansive cumulus field is noted in visible
satellite imagery extending from roughly Coahoma County MS toward
Tupelo. A downstream tornado watch will likely need to be considered
in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   33679606 33759548 33659496 33389483 32909475 32389489
            31839519 31499558 31329619 31249675 31209689 31279730
            31309747 31489754 31729744 32139720 33279643 33539627
            33679606