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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts
of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Marginally severe
wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward
into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the
Great Lakes.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A relatively co*pact (60 miles north-south) cluster of storms, with
a history of wind damage/measured severe gusts from eastern Nebraska
across the middle part of Iowa, continues eastward into northwest
Illinois as of 1230z/730am CDT. This cluster should continue to
weaken this morning as it beco*es increasingly removed from a
reservoir of moisture/instability, but locally strong wind gusts and
possibly some hail may continue in the short-term. For additional
near-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1448. 

This MCS, and expected renewed convective development later today,
are/will be influenced with a seasonally strong amplifying mid-level
shortwave trough crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region
today and tonight. Spatial/timing details are a bit uncertain, but
areas/near south of the ongoing early morning MCS will be favored
for renewed convective development near/ahead of the
southeastward-moving front late this afternoon, which includes a
corridor across northern Illinois into northern Indiana and southern
Lower Michigan. Strong destabilization is expected particularly
across north-central Illinois, although stronger deep-layer
shear/forcing for ascent will be a bit co*pensatory for more
moderate destabilization across northern Indiana into Lower
Michigan. Storms that form will likely be capable of damaging wind
gusts and hail. 

Owing to weaker overall forcing and more substantial mid-level
warmth with south-southwestward extent, storm development late this
afternoon/early evening should be a bit more isolated near the front
from western Illinois into Missouri, although steep low-level lapse
rates and ample buoyancy will yield at least a conditional or
isolated potential for storms to produce severe wind gusts.

...Portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Upper Michigan...
Marginal-related wind/hail probabilities have been introduced for
the region. Amplifying shortwave trough-related seasonably cool
mid-level temperatures will contribute to weak inhibition and modest
boundary layer destabilization even while moisture diminishes within
the post-frontal environment. Scattered semi-low-topped
thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase during the afternoon
with a few instances of hail and/or strong winds being possible.

...South-central Plains...
Intense surface heating ahead of the southward-advancing front
across the southern High Plains into Kansas will result in dry
adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3km as temperatures soar above
100F. Low-level upslope trajectories will also influence
thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa vicinity late in the
day. High cloud bases and low RH in the sub-cloud layer may support
some storms capable of localized severe-caliber wind gusts with the
convection late this afternoon and early evening.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/11/2022