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Mesoscale Discussion 1447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern IA and northwest
IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 111025Z - 111130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts may persist into eastern IA and
possibly northwest IL this morning and a new watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe thunderstorms across central IA has
beco*e somewhat disorganized this morning as it quickly shifts east
toward eastern IA. A band of thunderstorms has developed in a warm
advection regime ahead of this cluster of storms, resulting in some
disruption of early intense bow with a well-formed rear-inflow jet.
While KDMX radar indicates weakening of the rear-inflow, these
storms continue to traverse a moderate to strongly unstable airmass.
Surface dewpoints and instability decrease with eastward extent into
eastern IA and northern IL. However, some moist advection ahead of
the cluster of thunderstorms is expected. However, as the cluster
quickly shifts east, convection may outrun any stronger
destabilization. Some potential for strong to severe gusts will
likely continue for the next 1-2 hours and a new watch may be needed
for portions of eastern IA and possibly northwest IL.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42539403 42649194 42379001 41928953 41648948 41468983
            41239091 41279168 41399284 41539351 41999408 42539403