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Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/southern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110537Z - 110700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts may persist for another couple of
hours into parts of central and southern South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...A couple of bowing clusters east of the Rapid City
vicinity have recently produced strong to severe gusts around 50-65
mph, with one gust as high as 79 mph. This activity is moving into a
somewhat more moist downstream environment, with MUCAPE values
around 1000 J/kg. While instability is somewhat modest, strong
vertical shear (0-6 km bulk shear greater than 45 kt) and steep
midlevel lapse rates are contributing to storm organization.
Furthermore, the 00z RAOB from UNR shows a dry sub-cloud layer
favorable for enhancing downdrafts and increasing strong gust
potential. Latest radar trends show outflow has surged ahead of the
northern most bowing cluster over Stanley and Haakon Counties, with
some indications of an outflow surge associated with the southern
bowing segment over eastern Pennington County as well. Nevertheless,
enough instability and shear is available to this convection
downstream, and may allow strong to near-severe gusts to persist
another 1-2 hours. Given recent radar trends, a watch is not
expected at this time, though trends will be monitored.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43620270 43910278 44260260 44660196 44860162 44950112
            44920070 43909891 43699862 43459853 43219858 43029872
            42939943 42930044 43330215 43620270