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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a wind-damage threat are expected
across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. Marginally severe wind
gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the central Appalachians,
and in parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Northeast/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday as a mid-level jet translates eastward across the Northeast.
At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the
central and northern Appalachians, as a pre-frontal trough moves
through the Atlantic coastal plains. Surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F ahead of the front, will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop
during the afternoon, along parts of the instability corridor in the
central and northern Appalachians. Several line segments are
expected to organize and move eastward across the Atlantic coastal
plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place in the Northeast on
Tuesday. This feature will create moderate deep-layer shear across
most of the region. Forecast soundings along the axis of the
stronger flow, from eastern Pennsylvania into southeast New York at
21Z have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear in
the 45 to 50 knot range. Winds are veered to the southwest in the
boundary layer with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km. This
environment should support a wind-damage threat with line segments
that develop and move across the instability axis. Although a
supercell or two will be possible, the storms may have trouble
maintaining discrete mode due to the relatively fast-moving front.

Further to the southwest into West Virginia, Virginia and eastern
Kentucky, deep-layer shear will be relatively weak suggesting that
any severe threat will be marginal.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across the Upper Midwest
on Tuesday. At the surface, northwest flow will be in place, with a
moist axis located south-southeastward across northern and eastern
Wisconsin. In response to lift associated with the shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon, moving southeastward across Wisconsin. Although
instability should be weak, moderate deep-layer shear will exist,
which could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Relatively cool
temperatures at mid-levels may support a hail threat. Unidirectional
winds from the west-northwest along with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8.5
C/km may also support a few strong wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 07/11/2022