Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming...and
northwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 110012Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A strong to severe thunderstorm or two may move across
southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, and perhaps into northwest
South Dakota later this evening. Confidence in storm intensity is
low, but trends will be monitored for the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional reflectivity and lightning trends show
thunderstorms developing across southern MT in response to
increasing ascent ahead of an upper-level perturbation. Although a
couple of storms are showing signs of organization, including
supercell structure, RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest that these
storms are moving into an unfavorable thermodynamic environment with
minimal buoyancy (MLCAPE on the order of 100-250 J/kg based on the
latest RAP forecast soundings, which appear to capture the
near-surface moisture well). However, the KBLX VWP is observing
strong mid and upper-level winds associated with the upper wave,
which is supporting elongated, straight hodographs and deep-layer
shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. Given organized convection
is already ongoing, the strong deep-layer shear may co*pensate for
the weak thermodynamics and allow the ongoing storms to persist well
into southeast MT/northeast WY, and perhaps into northwest SD.
However, confidence is whether this activity will intensify is low
given the thermodynamic concerns. Trends will continue to be
monitored, and the need for a watch will be conditional on observing
persistent intensification over the co*ing hours.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   45070853 45700834 46030780 45960610 45840463 45450327
            45080271 44630285 44250371 44100457 44360543 44820788
            45070853