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Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...southwest into central Nebraska and extreme
northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102208Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are possible through
evening, producing locally severe gusts or hail.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a trough with weak wind shift
from northeast CO into southwest and central NE. Very steep
low-level lapse rates have developed with temperatures well over 100
F, and low-level moisture is being maintained along and north of the
surface trough, though drying has occurred from eastern CO into
western KS. Capping is clearly minimal as convection is already
increasing over southwest NE. This activity could produce localized
severe gusts or hail in the short term.

In addition to the developing NE activity, additional upstream
storms over far northeast CO may persist and enhance low-level
convergence with an outflow boundary. All these factor suggest an
increase in storms over the next several hours from CO into NE along
the length of the surface trough. Shear profiles do not favor much
organization potential, but weak veering with height could favor a
few slow-moving cells, and perhaps a propagating cluster as outflow
increases over time. Although capping increases over eastern NE,
moisture is more robust there, and could potentially support
continued activity there later tonight.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40650277 40900272 41240220 41340118 41459968 41489901
            41359855 41179833 40829826 40509832 40299909 40090046
            40120171 40420265 40650277