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Mesoscale Discussion 1440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Colorado into the
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102024Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A short-term, isolated threat for severe gusts exists with
storms that are initiating off of the higher terrain in
Colorado/Wyoming. A clustering of storms and the potential for a
greater severe wind threat may develop by this evening across
western into central Nebraska. A WW issuance is unlikely in the
near-term.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures continue to rise into the 100-110
F range ahead of a surface cold front across extreme northeast
Colorado into southwest Nebraska, with 50+ T/Td spreads noted. RAP
forecast soundings show a dry, mixed boundary layer extending to
600-500 mb in altitude. Given the presence of 9 + C/km surface-500
mb lapse rates (per 19Z mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings),
efficient evaporative cooling should support at least isolated
severe gusts in the next couple of hours with any robust storm that
can develop, even with 1000 J/kg SBCAPE constrained above 600 mb in
a tall, skinny vertical profile. Since storms are expected to remain
isolated in the next few hours, a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated. However, several guidance members suggest that cold
pool mergers may encourage storms to cluster within a modestly
sheared environment (i.e. 30 kts effective bulk shear) later this
afternoon. As such, a more robust severe wind threat may develop by
late afternoon/early evening, especially farther east toward central
Nebraska.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40900488 41230480 41460414 41600248 41540119 41260070
            40970062 40530088 40220156 39820234 39640271 39570296
            39580333 39680368 39860411 40070434 40900488