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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest and northern Plains today into tonight. A few strong
storms may also occur today from southeast Texas into southern
Louisiana, as well as other parts of the Southeast.

...Upper Midwest/North Dakota...
Initially, a severe fast-moving (50+ kt) MCS is ongoing early this
morning from far eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
Severe-caliber wind gusts will remain possible for a time, but the
system should eventually weaken this morning as inflow diminishes.

That said, given the large-scale support aloft, co*plete dissipation
is not expected and the primary question is to what degree/where
robust convection develops in the wake of the MCS debris field along
the advancing frontal zone. This currently appears most probable
across northern Minnesota along the southern edge of the ongoing MCS
where differential heating/frontal convergence should be adequate
for renewed convective development by around mid-afternoon. Strong
shear suggests supercells are possible, with the potential for large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado.

Farther west, additional strong/severe storms, at least on an
isolated basis, may develop/move southeastward across the
international border into northern North Dakota later this afternoon
and evening. With moderate recovery in the wake of the MCS early
today, at least isolated severe storms capable of wind/hail may
occur and have maintained the ongoing Slight Risk for this
post-MCS/later-day severe potential.

...Northern High Plains...
Surface pressure rises across Montana will create a narrow corridor
of favorable low-level upslope flow along the Montana/Wyoming border
by late afternoon as a secondary surface boundary strengthens and
advances south during the evening. While PW values will not be
particularly moist (around 1 inch), strong surface heating and
orographic influences should aid at least isolated robust
development. Forecast soundings suggest strongly sheared storms
could generate gusty winds as high-based supercells spread southeast
toward the Black Hills region.

...Southeast Texas/southern Louisiana...
Strengthening northwesterly flow across the Mississippi Valley into
the Mid-South region will ensure a surface boundary sags south
across Louisiana, arcing west into south-central Texas. Very strong
surface heating will allow temperatures to soar above 100F across
southeast Texas with mid 90s into southwest Louisiana. While
deep-layer flow will be weak along this corridor, high PW values and
warm temperatures should contribute to a few robust updrafts.
Forecast soundings across southeast Texas suggest cloud bases may be
near 3km AGL and this may contribute to gusty downdrafts due to
relatively low sub-cloud RH values.

...c*astal Carolinas and vicinity...
Although cloud cover is semi-prevalent early today, a few strong to
locally severe storms may occur into the afternoon across South
Carolina and nearby parts of Georgia/coastal North Carolina.
Moderate diurnal destabilization ahead of an upstream shortwave
trough will influence the potential for these stronger
updrafts/downdrafts, with some localized wind damage a possibility.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/10/2022