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Mesoscale Discussion 1430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas to central Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

Valid 092235Z - 100030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and sporadic large hail
continues across WW 451. The best near-term wind damage threat will
likely reside across eastern Mississippi into central Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to propagate southward along a
cool front across the lower MS River Valley and the Mid-South.
Although many of the initial cells have beco*e outflow dominant
and/or consolidated into a few clusters, several wind damage reports
have been noted over the past 1-2 hours with this activity. The
environment ahead of the front remains very thermodynamically
favorable for strong to severe convection. Temperatures in the upper
90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are maintaining upwards of
4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE with negligible inhibition. The nearly 30 F
dewpoint depressions are also indicative of the steep low-level
lapse rates in place that will further aid the downburst wind
potential. 

Despite weak deep-layer flow, the strong thermodynamics will
maintain a severe threat for most of WW 451 well into the evening
hours. The best near-term potential for damaging winds will likely
reside across east-central MS into western/central AL. Regional
reflectivity and velocity trends show loosely organized clusters
beginning to show cold pool amalgamation with new development on the
leading edge of the outflow. Consequently, this may support a more
widespread damaging wind threat co*pared to locations further west
where cells are more isolated in nature.

..Moore.. 07/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33779231 34079173 34279049 34278932 34368816 34288730
            34048645 33518612 32948607 32448650 32128748 32318918
            32419028 32669124 32979198 33369249 33569251 33779231