Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...central and eastern MO...western IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131238Z - 131445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are
possible through the mid morning.  Storm coverage and the limited
magnitude of the risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm
watch issuance in the short term (through 10am).

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over
central MO in the vicinity of a cold front pushing east-southeast
across the lower MO Valley this morning.  Surface temperatures ahead
of this thunderstorm activity are in the mid to upper 60s with lower
60s dewpoints, yielding a marginally unstable airmass.

There is some uncertainty regarding destabilization this morning
over the mid MS Valley due in part to an extensive cloud shield and
deleterious effects emanating from the puddle of convectively
processed air over the lower MS Valley at least potentially
affecting this region.  Nonetheless, as an intense mid-level
shortwave trough over the TX Panhandle approaches this region later
today, an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity is expected. 
However, in the meantime, the overall limited buoyancy in place
across the mid MS Valley through mid morning will likely limit both
the magnitude and coverage to a potential severe threat.  Marginally
severe hail and wind damage would be the hazards with this activity.

..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37899301 39549185 39849078 39639013 39199003 38479058
            37579255 37899301