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Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...northeast TX...southeast OK...west-central and
southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131205Z - 131430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Additional storm development/intensification is likely
this morning.  A tornado watch will probably need to be considered
for parts of this region later this morning.  Isolated large hail
will be the primary risk with the initial strong/severe storms.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an intense
mid-level shortwave trough moving east through the TX Panhandle as
it moves through the base of a larger-scale trough over the central
U.S.  Radar imagery during the past hour has shown a pronounced
increase in storm development both along the cold front over central
OK and in the warm sector in a pre-frontal band of developing storms
over north-central TX.  

Surface analysis indicates an outflow boundary is draped from parts
of central MS westward into northern LA and into far northeast TX in
wake of a MCV and associated MCS that moved across the
Arklatex/Arklamiss during the overnight.  The airmass over northeast
TX and southeast OK is moderately unstable with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s as rich low-level moisture advects north-northeast on
the western periphery stable low levels.  

Increasing forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear
will favor additional storm development/organization over the next
several hours.  Large hail will be the primary threat prior to
storms transitioning to beco*ing surface based late this morning. 
Although timing of a surface-based transition is uncertain at this
time (most likely 10am-12pm), the severe risk will correspondingly
evolve to some tornado threat developing with an evolution to
maturing supercells.

..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33209688 35119597 35469433 35189281 34329207 33569216
            32099431 32009579 32169666 33209688