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Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Areas affected...southwest and central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082135Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the
more intense downdrafts through the early evening.  Coverage of
expected severe gusts will likely preclude the need for a small
severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a southwest-northeast oriented
cluster of recently developed strong to severe storms along a cool
front/wind shift.  Surface conditions over southwest OK are hot with
temperatures in the 104-108 deg F range with dewpoints in the upper
50s to lower 60s.  Farther northeast, temperatures are in the lower
100s with dewpoints in the middle 60s.  Given the gradient in
surface dewpoints, PW ranges from 1.5 inches southwest to 1.75 in
central OK per RAP-based objective analysis.  The large to very
large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions are yielding nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface through 700 mb.  Although
the wind profile is weak and only supporting pulse thunderstorms,
small to marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger
updrafts (0.5-1.5 inches in diameter).  However, it seems the
greater severe risk will likely be isolated severe gusts.  Peak
gusts will probably range 60-75 mph.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   34959985 35729805 35519753 35169760 34539946 34589979
            34959985