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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MONTANA AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across
Montana this evening.  Strong/severe thunderstorms should spread
into the lower Missouri Valley after sunset.

...01z Update...

Upper ridge is expected to gradually build north across the High
Plains through sunrise. Scattered convection has developed within
southwesterly flow across the higher terrain into central MT where
greater buoyancy and low-level moisture are currently noted. Several
supercells and organized clusters have evolved along a corridor from
south of MSO to near LWT. This activity will progress through the
ridge later this evening and begin to turn more southeast as it
approaches the Dakota border region. Late tonight, convection should
migrate toward central SD where it is expected to gradually weaken
by sunrise.

Farther southeast, early-day MCS that progressed across the lower MO
Valley has advanced into southeast KY. A notably reinforced boundary
is currently draped across central MO into northeast KS. This
demarcation will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe
thunderstorms later tonight ahead of a short-wave trough that is
approaching this region. Weak low-level warm advection may increase
a bit after midnight as LLJ strengthens across central MO into
southern IL. Ongoing convection across eastern NE/western IA should
gradually propagate southeast toward a region that is seasonally
unstable with high PW values. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 3600
J/kg MUCAPE with 2 inch PW and adequate shear for at least organized
multicell updrafts. Overall, a gradual increase in convection is
expected north of the boundary into northern MO as the evening
progresses.

..Darrow.. 07/08/2022