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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging
wind gusts should be the main threats. A corridor of severe storms
may also develop during the day across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley region...
Areas of storms associated with an MCV are forecast over southern IL
and IN Friday morning, and are expected to continue east near a warm
front. Strong instability is forecast to develop south of the front
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and mid 70s F dewpoints. Lift
associated with the potential MCV is likely to initiate new
convection, which will benefit from the enhanced shear. This could
be in the form of a new MCS with damaging wind threat, with a
supercell or two embedded given favorable low-level shear along the
boundary.

...Montana...
Midlevel winds of 35-40 kt will gradually overspread MT from west to
east as the upper ridge axis shifts into the Dakotas. Strong heating
and cool midlevel temperatures will once again result in steep lapse
rates, with southeast low-level winds across central and eastern MT
maintaining boundary-layer moisture. Convergence will be maximized
from southwest into central MT during the day as pressures fall, and
scattered storms will result after 21Z. The strengthening
southwesterlies aloft should favor northeast storm motions with
locally damaging outflow, while cold temperatures midlevel
temperatures and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear favors hail.

...Maine...
A deep upper low will move slowly east across Quebec, with strong
westerly winds aloft across the Northeast. Cold midlevel
temperatures, heating and mid/upper 50s F dewpoints will result in
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will beco*e strong, especially
toward EL level. The end result should be scattered cells developing
after 18Z along the surface trough, with the primary risk being
hail. Storms may be somewhat low-topped but hail around 1.00"
diameter appears likely.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2022