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Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...much of central into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 070101Z - 070300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 445. Severe hail (some and winds should continue into the
evening hours. A brief tornado still cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Numerous multicells/supercells have beco*e established
across central into eastern MT over the past couple of hours. While
the widespread nature of the storms might result in storm mergers
and enough adequate overturning to reduce storm longevity to a
degree, uncontaminated air still bears 8+ C/km low and mid-level
lapse rates. As such, any updrafts that can mature may still support
a large hail threat, including brief bouts of 2+ inch hail given
both the aforementioned lapse rates and 35+ kts of effective bulk
shear present (especially in central into northeast MT). Given the
steep low-level lapse rates/dry boundary layer, severe gusts are
also possible. In addition any supercell structure that can
favorably traverse an outflow boundary may also produce a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46541159 47961171 48431145 48681074 48990934 49000652
            48760522 48310419 47680419 46370529 45680592 45290637
            45190695 45400833 45951002 46541159