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Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into extreme northwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062202Z - 062330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist across central KS
into extreme northwest OK through the remainder of the afternoon.
The best chance for severe would be in association with a supercell
across central KS. The overall severe threat is expected to remain
isolated otherwise, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have developed across portions of
central KS into extreme northwest OK over the past couple of hours.
Mainly pulse cellular storms with a history of producing observed,
estimated strong to severe gusts have occurred. However, a supercell
has also beco*e established along a baroclinic zone (where greater
deep-layer shear exists) across central KS with a history of
golfball sized hail. RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis depict
a hot, dry boundary layer in place across most of KS/OK, with 9 C/km
0-3 km lapse rates promoting severe gust potential with the outflow
dominant pulse cells. Though localized, a relatively greater large
hail/severe wind threat is expected to acco*pany the supercell
across Rush/Barton Counties in KS for at least a couple more hours.
Since the overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated, a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36760019 38389981 39019931 39109826 38789806 37899842
            37109894 36799933 36760019