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Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062024Z - 062230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may organize off of the Blue
Ridge in central Virginia. Should this occur, a locally greater
threat for damaging winds would develop. While a watch is not
expected, trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed along the Blue Ridge in
central Virginia. These storms are along the southern fringe of
stronger mid-level winds. Even with surface temperatures in the
low/mid 90s F and dewpoints holding in the low/mid 70s F, poor
mid-level lapse rates have kept MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. The
25-30 kts of shear may be enough to help organize a southeastward
moving cluster this afternoon, which has had some support from CAM
guidance today. Damaging winds would be the primary concern.
However, the area of impact may remain quite limited. A watch is not
currently expected, but trends will be monitored.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37888011 38427938 38157813 37677760 37017815 37127898
            37437993 37568010 37888011