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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MONTANA...AND FROM KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible Thursday mainly
across Montana, and from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the
Carolinas. Damaging winds will be possible over all areas, with hail
also expected over Montana.

...MT into the northern and central High Plains...
A region of 30-40 kt southwesterly winds at 500 mb will remain over
the Pacific Northwest, with neutral to slightly rising heights
through the period. Midlevel temperatures will remain cool despite
the ridging, and heating will lead to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Storms are expected to form over southwest and central MT after 21Z,
with primarily outflow-driven convection spreading northeastward
during the evening. The steep lapse rates may support damaging hail
in the stronger storms, with severe outflow expected as well.

Additional isolated activity is anticipated farther east into the
western Dakotas southward into eastern WY/northeast CO/western NE.
Here, sporadic hail or wind reports will also be possible, with
minimal organization due to weak shear.

...KY/TN into the Carolinas...
An upper high will be centered over AR, with gradually rising
heights across much of the Southeast. Weak northwest flow aloft will
exist across the region (15-20 kt at 500 mb), with warm temperatures
aloft as well. Despite these factors, robust moisture with 70s F
dewpoints will remain widespread, with strong heating resulting in
MUCAPE averaging 2000-3000 J/kg from KY/TN into the Carolinas. Weak
surface convergence centered over NC may provide a focus for
clusters of storms and locally damaging gusts, with another area
across KY and TN coincident with a region of steeper low-level lapse
rates.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2022