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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TO CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential (mainly gusts and hail) appears most
concentrated today over parts of the northern High Plains/Rockies
region, central Plains, and parts of the Ohio Valley to Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern will be dominated by troughing offshore
from the West Coast, with a cyclone offshore from the Pacific
Northwest, mean ridging from the Gulf Coast states across the
central/northern Rockies, and belt of west-northwesterly to
northwesterly flow from the mid/upper Mississippi Valley to the
coastal Carolinas and Tidewater regions.  The following shortwave
troughs influencing convective potential were evident in moisture-
channel imagery.
1.  Western/central NV, forecast to move northeastward to eastern ID
and western MT by 00Z, through the mean ridge position, then
pivoting eastward to eastern MT with some convective reinforcement
overnight.
2.  Western parts of CO/NM, forecast to pivot northeastward and
eastward, also through the mean ridge, then across the central
Plains by 12Z tomorrow.
3.  Southern Lower MI, northwestern IN and IL, convectively
reinforced by the previous day's severe MCS, with an MCV apparent
near the southern end of Lake Michigan.  This feature should move
southeastward to WV by 00Z, the over parts of VA and the Carolinas
by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, slow-moving cold front,
with several weak lows attached, from southeastern NY across
northern portions of OH/IN/IL to central/southwestern KS.  Most of
the front east of the Mississippi River should sag southward through
the period, while a low initially near DDC moves slowly toward
central KS along the boundary.  Several outflow boundaries from
earlier MCS activity also exist south of the front over the Ohio
Valley States.

...Northern High Plains/Rockies region...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop initially
over higher terrain of western/southern MT and northeastern WY this
afternoon, where diabatic heating and orographic lift will weaken
and overco*e MLCINH first, beneath increasing large-scale ascent
related to the approaching perturbation.  Resulting convection
should move east-northeastward to eastward over the nearby northern
High Plains this afternoon and evening, offering occasional severe
hail and gusts, with isolated significant severe possible.

A roughly zonal corridor of relatively maximized moisture/theta-e
will be in place over eastern and central MT into western SD, with
dewpoints co*monly in the 50s over western areas to mid 60s in the
east by around 00Z.  In tandem with diurnal surface heating and
steep low/middle-level lapse rates, corridor of MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg should develop.  Strong veering of flow with height
will offset modest low/midlevel wind speeds enough to yield
effective-shear magnitudes co*monly in the 35-45-kt range,
supporting both supercells and organized multicells (including
bowing structures).  Some clustering and related, localized
cold-pool growth may occur for a few hours to support wind potential
into the evening.  The severe threat should diminish with time
tonight as both ambient/antecedent MLCINH from the EML base, and
nocturnal surface cooling, beco*e increasingly hostile to convective
growth.

...Central Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop from
midday into this afternoon over the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and
Palmer Divide, then move eastward over the adjoining High Plains. 
Severe hail and gusts are possible.  Some of this activity may
coalesce into a forward-propagational thunderstorm cluster this
evening into tonight.  Strong diurnal surface heating of the higher
elevations will erode MLCINH quickly today, amidst favorable
moisture (with surface dew points co*monly in the 50s to low 60s F
and areas of 1.25-1.5-inch PW).  Being removed from the stronger
mid/upper winds aloft, deep shear will be limited, though strong
veering with height of weak low-level flow will exist to support
30-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes.  Peak/preconvective MLCAPE
should range from around 1000 J/kg near the foothills to around 2000
J/kg near the latitude of the eastern border of CO.  Well-mixed
subcloud layers will support gust potential.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley to Carolinas...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
through this afternoon along any of several plausible foci:  higher
terrain in the Appalachians, the prefrontal/lee-side surface trough,
sea breezes, and outflow/differential-heating boundaries from
antecedent/ongoing convection.  This includes boundaries related to
non-severe convection now crossing portions of WV and OH. 
Thunderstorm coverage should increase through the afternoon, with a
few clusters potentially aggregating upscale and offering
concentrations of damaging winds.  Isolated large hail also is
possible.

The air mass along and south of the co*posite front/outflow boundary
will remain richly moist, with lower-elevation dewpoints co*monly in
the upper 60s to mid-70s F, and strong diurnal heating.  These
factors should offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough to
contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range over most of the
area, with 2000-3000 J/kg possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
region not substantially altered by prior convection.  With the area
displaced south of strong mid/upper-level winds, vertical shear
generally will be weak, with small hodographs and effective-shear
magnitudes.  As such, the dominant mode should be multicellular and
clustered, with activity moving generally southeastward amidst
difluent/northwesterly mid/upper-level winds.

..Edwards/Goss.. 07/06/2022