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Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

Valid 060420Z - 060615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue for a few
more hours across parts of western North Dakota. Wind damage and
hail will be possible. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely to
the east of the ongoing watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar at Minot shows a
cluster of strong thunderstorms in far northwestern North Dakota.
Other storms are ongoing further southwest to near the North
Dakota-Montana state line. This convection is located near an axis
of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. The storms will continue to move eastward across the
instability corridor over the next couple of hours. The instability,
co*bined with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates, will make severe storms possible. Wind damage and hail
will be the primary threats over the next couple of hours. As the
storms move toward the eastern edge of WW 441, the severe threat
should beco*e more isolated.

..Broyles.. 07/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   46910168 47590103 48170090 48570143 48670197 48680230
            48540257 48260292 47860341 47470377 47220392 46940397
            46690395 46550380 46440332 46400297 46480238 46910168