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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF MONTANA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of severe thunderstorms may occur today from parts of the
northern/central Rockies/Plains into from the Midwest/Ohio Valley
into the Carolinas. Severe gusts and/or wind damage and large hail
are the primary threats.

...MT into the western Dakotas...
A mid-level ridge will be situated over the northern High Plains to
the east of a mid-level low west of Vancouver Island/Washington.  In
the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the Upper Great
Lakes into the northern Plains, resulting in weak east/southeast
surface winds.  Within the corridor from the Dakotas into MT, a
relatively moist air mass will beco*e moderately unstable by
early-mid afternoon.  The initial storm activity is expected over
the higher terrain of southwest and western MT.  Storms will likely
move northeast into the adjacent plains during the late
afternoon/early evening with an attendant risk for large to very
large hail and severe gusts.  The steep lapse rates will favor
intense gusts with the stronger cores.  Congealing of outflow will
favor one or more clusters moving across central MT during the
evening.  Storm coverage will likely remain isolated farther east
but hail/wind will likely acco*pany the stronger storms before this
activity gradually diminishes during the evening.

...IN/OH/KY into the Carolinas...
A residual band of showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from
parts of the OH Valley eastward potentially into the central
Appalachians.  The risk for severe will likely remain limited early
this morning before a rejuvenation of storms occurs by late morning
into the early afternoon.  A modest northwest flow regime will exist
across the region with mid and high-level winds around 30 kt.  In
the low levels, a co*posite outflow/front will likely extend in a
west-east orientation with the boundary pushing south during the
day.  Farther east, a weak surface trough will redevelop from
eastern VA into the central Carolinas. Both of these features will
provide low-level convergence and lift for a diurnal thunderstorm
threat. 

Strong heating ahead of the remnant convection will result in
moderate to strong buoyancy within an airmass characterized by
surface dewpoints generally in the 70-76 deg F range.  It seems
likely a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will be
possible, producing strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) and isolated
hail.  This activity will likely weaken by the early/mid evening
coincident with the loss of heating.

...Central Great Plains to the mid MS Valley...
Isolated storms are forecast near remnant outflow/co*posite front
and near a lee trough.  Deep-layer shear will remain modest owing to
the proximity of the mid-level high centered over the Mid South. 
However, ample instability will develop during the day.  The
stronger storms will be capable of a wind/hail threat primarily
during the late afternoon/evening.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/06/2022