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Mesoscale Discussion 1389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...Western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

Valid 052347Z - 060145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to
continue across severe thunderstorm watch 439 over the next few
hours. The severe threat could affect areas just to the east of the
watch, where watch issuance may be needed later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest high resolution radar from Glasgow shows a
cluster of strong thunderstorms across east-central Montana. This
cluster is located on the northern edge of a corridor of
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg
range. The cluster is being supported by a shortwave trough,
currently evident on water vapor imagery over west-central Montana.
As the trough moves eastward, convective coverage is expected to
increase across eastern Montana. The instability co*bined with 45 to
55 knots of deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be
favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will
also be possible with the stronger downdrafts. Convection is
forecast to develop across far eastern Montana within a few hours,
an could affect far western North Dakota. As cell coverage increases
later this evening, the area east of WW 439 will be monitored for
possible watch issuance.

..Broyles.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47810767 46220775 45520740 45290675 45250579 45360493
            45710410 46350370 47350372 48260388 48700449 48830531
            48840622 48570731 47810767