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Mesoscale Discussion 1383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Tennessee...extreme
southern Virginia...western into central North Carolina...far
northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052134Z - 052330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may acco*pany the stronger
storm cores embedded within a southward moving squall line. The
overall severe wind threat is expected to remain isolated through
the remainder of the evening and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A modestly organized MCS has materialized over the past
couple of hours across portions of the central Appalachians into the
Carolina Piedmont, where a couple of damaging gusts have recently
been reported. Deep-layer tropospheric flow/shear remain weak across
much of the eastern U.S., with squall line organization driven
predominantly by cold pool mergers in a moderately unstable
environment. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of the MCS/squall
line, driven primarily by 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. As such,
adequate evaporative cooling within the boundary layer should
support an isolated damaging gust threat through the remainder of
the afternoon with the stronger storm cores.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
JKL...

LAT...LON   35728351 36148385 36528413 36708412 36588338 36298234
            36008109 36117967 36477867 36817817 36777765 36657716
            36337709 35967722 35657759 35167847 34897909 34637973
            34378084 34258177 34248237 34438278 34888313 35728351