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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...EASTERN IOWA EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts are possible through
this evening centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Scattered
large hail and isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of
Montana into the western Dakotas this evening through tonight.

...Eastern IA into the southern Great Lakes...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east across the southwest Great Lakes.  This mid-level
feature is forecast to continue east to the Lower Great Lakes late
tonight.  Short-term model guidance has shown what is a developing
thunderstorm cluster over parts of eastern IA into southern WI early
this evening.  A very moisture-rich and unstable airmass is located
over eastern IA/northern IL into northwest IN (reference the 00z
Davenport, IA 18.5 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio) with a
drier airmass currently in place across northeast IN/southern MI and
into northwest OH.  A southwesterly LLJ is forecast to advect
increasing moisture into the southern Great Lakes tonight.  A
primarily hail/wind threat will likely acco*pany the strongest
storms early this evening (tornado possible with any sustained
stronger low-level mesocyclone) in the IA/WI/northern IL vicinity,
before upscale growth leads to wind-damage potential later this
evening into tonight across the southern Great Lakes.

...Montana east into the western Dakotas and northern NE...
A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will continue northeast
into Canada tonight as a mid-level ridge is maintained over the
Dakotas/Upper Midwest tonight.  Ample low-level moisture/lapse rates
will likely foster a continued risk for isolated to widely scattered
severe thunderstorms through this evening from parts of northern NE
north-northwestward into Montana.  Upscale growth into one or more
small thunderstorm clusters this evening will likely promote a
focused risk for severe gusts before this activity slowly diminishes
later this evening/tonight.

..Smith.. 07/05/2022