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Mesoscale Discussion 1363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042308Z - 050015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe gusts/hail may acco*pany the
stronger storms that can develop over the next few hours. The severe
threat is expected to remain relatively isolated.

DISCUSSION...A small, embedded 500 mb vortmax is cresting the ridge
across northwest ND per latest RAP analysis, which is likely
supporting convective initiation along multiple outflow boundaries
strewn across the state. Overall storm coverage along these
boundaries should remain limited given the overall weak upper
support. Surface temperatures exceeding 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints, overspread by 7.5 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, are
contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 22Z mesoanalysis. Stronger
mid-level flow is also contributing to 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear, supporting storm organization for any updraft that can beco*e
sustained. Should a storm mature, transient supercell structures may
result and would be associated with a large hail/severe wind threat.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48220365 48620268 48790088 48749957 48579849 48359836
            48079842 47529883 47189946 47050041 46980144 47150234
            47410308 48220365