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Mesoscale Discussion 1359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...The Black Hills vicinity of southwestern South
Dakota and adjacent portions of Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042042Z - 042245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development is
possible near the Black Hills vicinity into early evening. 
Occasional large hail and a locally strong surface gust or two may
acco*pany this activity.  It is not clear that a severe weather
watch is needed, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with a plume of very warm and elevated mixed-layer air, a
seasonably moist boundary-layer is beco*ing characterized by CAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg with insolation.  Isolated thunderstorm activity
has initiated across the Black Hills vicinity, largely aided by
forcing for ascent associated with orography.  In the presence of
strongly sheared, but modest (around 20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean
flow, initial activity may be in the process of advecting off (east
of) the higher terrain, where much stronger inhibition seems likely
to contribute to weakening and dissipation.  However, attempts at
subsequent isolated thunderstorm development are already underway to
the southwest, and this may continue into early evening.  One or two
storms may briefly intensify sufficient to produce large hail and/or
locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON   44390412 44450368 44280311 43610344 43800393 44230418
            44390412