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Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 122359Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across northern/central Texas will continue
rapidly northeastward this evening. Organization into a small MCS
with a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes
appears likely.

DISCUSSION...As of 0000 UTC, region radar imagery showed a co*plex
of strong/severe thunderstorms ongoing across northern and central
Texas. Northern portions of this cluster have recently organized
into a more linear configuration and accelerated northeastward as
strong outflow has developing. Current timing guidance places the
leading edge of these storms out of WW112 by 0130z. Current
observational trends and hi-res guidance suggest these storms will
continue to pose a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple
of QLCS tornadoes as the cluster grows upscale into an MCS and move
northeastward into the ArkLaTex. While cooler than farther west due
to persistent cloud cover, continued warm advection of upper 60s and
low 70s F surface dewpoints northward along the low-level jet will
likely offset nocturnal stabilization. RAP sounding show approx 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kt of effective shear. Low-level
hodographs remain fairly large with 0-1km shear of 20-30 kts
expected near the jet core. This along with sufficient buoyancy and
a moistening surface environment should continue to support strong
gusts and a few tornadoes.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   33129215 32579232 32179251 31679289 31469341 31129493
            31049535 31119564 31279576 31459574 31779569 32679552
            33269547 33609529 33899480 34049418 34119366 34119319
            34039272 33939246 33769227 33509214 33129215